by Judith Curry
Crowd sourcing examples of fallacious thinking from climate science.
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How we fool ourselves출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵by Judith Curry Crowd sourcing examples of fallacious thinking from climate science. Posted in Sociology of science, Uncertainty Herd immunity to COVID-19 and pre-existing immune responses출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵By Nic Lewis I showed in my May 10th article Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and in the social-connectivity related infectivity of individuals would reduce, in my view probably very substantially, the herd immunity threshold (HIT), beyond which an epidemic goes into retreat. Continue reading Posted in Uncategorized Week in review – science edition출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵 출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵Posted in Week in review COVID-19: evidence shows that transmission by schoolchildren is low출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵By Nic Lewis Much fuss has been made in the UK, not least by teachers’ unions, about recommencing physical school attendance. As this issue applies to many countries, I thought it worth highlighting research findings in Europe. Continue reading Posted in Uncategorized Part of the heat is coming from beneath our feet.출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵by Judith Curry A thought-provoking article from my new favorite blog, The Ethical Skeptic. Posted in Attribution, Causation, Ethics, Skeptics Politics discussion thread출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵by Judith Curry It’s time for a politics thread, to deflect the political comments that are sneaking into the technical threads. Posted in Uncategorized New confirmation that climate models overstate atmospheric warming출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵by Ross McKitrick Two new peer-reviewed papers from independent teams confirm that climate models overstate atmospheric warming and the problem has gotten worse over time, not better. Posted in climate models New paper suggests historical period estimates of climate sensitivity are not biased low by unusual variability in sea surface temperature patterns출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵By Nic Lewis An important new paper by Thorsten Mauritsen, Associate Professor at Stockholm University[i] and myself has just been accepted for publication (Lewis and Mauritsen 2020)[ii]. Its abstract reads: Continue reading Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks Emergent constraints on TCR and ECS from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵By Nic Lewis This is a brief comment on a new paper[i] by a mathematician in the Exeter Climate Systems group, Femke Nijsse, and two better known colleagues, Peter Cox and Mark Williamson. I note that Earth Systems Dynamics published the paper despite one of the two peer reviewers recommending against acceptance without further major revisions. But neither of the reviewers appear to have raised the issue that I focus on here. Continue reading Cancel culture discussion thread II출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵 출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵Posted in Uncategorized Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought – update출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵By Nic Lewis I showed in my May 10th article Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and in the social-connectivity related infectivity of individuals would reduce, in my view probably very substantially, the herd immunity threshold (HIT), beyond which an epidemic goes into retreat. I opined, based on my modelling, that the HIT probably lay somewhere between 7% and 24%, and that evidence from Stockholm County suggested it was around 17% there, and had been reached. Mounting evidence supports my reasoning.[1] I particularly want to highlight an important paper published on July 24th “Herd immunity thresholds estimated from unfolding epidemics” (Aguas et al.).[2] The author team is much the same as that of the earlier theoretical paper (Gomes et al.[3]) that prompted my May 10th article. Continue reading Posted in Uncategorized Apocalypse Never and False Alarm출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵 출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵Posted in Climate change impacts, Policy Cancel culture discussion thread출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵 출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵Posted in Communication, Ethics Covid discussion thread: Part X출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵by Judith Curry Latest roundup of interesting articles. I’m running out of steam on this topic, here are some random articles I’ve flagged over the last few weeks. Posted in Week in review The progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in Sweden: an analysis출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵By Nic Lewis The course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden is of great interest, as it is one of very few advanced nations where no lockdown order that heavily restricted people’s movements and other basic freedoms was imposed. As there has been much comment, some of it ill-informed, on how the COVID-19 epidemic has developed in Sweden, but relatively little detailed analysis published in English, it is worth exploring what their excellent publicly-available data reveal. Continue reading Posted in Uncategorized Mass spectrometry and climate science. Part II출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵by Roland Hirsch New technologies in mass spectrometry are advancing research in climate science Posted in Data and observations Week in review – science edition출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵 출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵Posted in Week in review Did lockdowns really save 3 million COVID-19 deaths, as Flaxman et al. claim?출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵By Nic Lewis Key points about the recent Nature paper by Flaxman and other Imperial College modellers Posted in Uncategorized Structural errors in global climate models출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵by Gerald Browning Climate model sensitivity to CO2 is heavily dependent on artificial parameterizations (e.g. clouds, convection) that are implemented in global climate models that utilize the wrong atmospheric dynamical system and excessive dissipation. Posted in climate models Mass spectrometry and climate science. Part I: Determining past climates출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵 출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵Posted in Uncategorized Covid discussion thread: Part IX출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵 출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵Posted in Week in review Dynamics of the Tropical Atmosphere and Oceans출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵by Judith Curry Peter Webster’s magnum opus is now published: Dynamics of the Tropical Atmosphere and Oceans. Posted in Oceans Covid discussion thread: Part VIII출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵 출장샵|출장샵|출장샵|출장샵Posted in Uncategorized |